Five sectors. One analytical lens.
Quarterly deep-dives that translate macro into operating decisions — for boards, lenders, regulators and investors.
Manufacturing
Nigeria's manufacturing sector contributed 8.6% to Q1 2026 GDP. Capacity utilisation recovered to 57% (Q4 2025: 53%) as FX availability improved and PMS price stability lowered logistics costs.
- · Capacity utilisation: 57%
- · MAN PMI: 52.1 (expansion)
- · Sector GDP growth Q1 2026: 3.1%
Banking & Financial Services
Nigerian banks rode the high-rate cycle to strong margins. As rates turn and recapitalisation reshapes the field, 2026 demands a pivot from rate-spread reliance to fee income, digital and disciplined deployment of fresh capital.
- · MPR 26.5% (first cut Feb 2026)
- · Sector NIMs expanded sharply through 2024–25
- · Recapitalisation programme reshaping competitive field
- · Digital payments deepening structurally
Banking & Financial Services
Tier-1 recapitalisation is largely complete; Tier-2 banks are mid-cycle. Sector ROE has rebounded to ~24% as NIM expanded with high MPR and asset quality stabilised at sub-5% NPL ratio.
- · Sector ROE: ~24%
- · System NPL: 4.7%
- · CAR: 14.8% (sector avg)
Consumer Goods & FMCG
2026 is a tug-of-war between easing inflation and exhausted household budgets. Headline disinflation is real, food costs remain elevated and purchasing power is weak. Winning means pack-price architecture, disciplined pricing and positioning for the eventual demand recovery.
- · Food inflation ~16% (April 2026)
- · Naira stable at ~₦1,360 — supportive for imports
- · Consumer wallets remain food-stressed
SME & Mid-Market
Nigeria's ~40 million MSMEs continue to operate under financing and FX-access constraints. The 2026 CBN MSME Refinancing Window has disbursed N420bn YTD against a N1trn target.
- · MSME refinancing disbursed YTD: N420bn
- · Effective borrowing rate (top quartile): 24-28%
- · Tax-compliance burden index: rising
Downstream & Refining
Large-scale domestic refining has restructured the downstream sector. With Nigeria now a net exporter of refined products, the economics of supply, distribution and pricing have shifted decisively.
- · Nigeria now net exporter of refined products
- · Structural FX drain reversed
- · Brent in $90s — fuel costs still rose during 2026 shock
Telecommunications & ICT
Higher tariffs, sustained capex demand and the deepening data economy define the sector. Telecoms remain Nigeria's most consequential digital-infrastructure layer, with margins improving as tariff relief catches up to FX-adjusted costs.
- · MTN most valuable NGX stock (~₦16.3tn)
- · Tariff adjustments through 2025–26
- · Data-economy growth structural
Agriculture & Agribusiness
Agriculture rebounded in Q1 2026 after a near-flat 2025, supported by improved security in some belts, naira stability for input imports, and policy attention. The sector is investable — food security has become a business model.
- · Agriculture rebounded to ~3% real growth Q1 2026
- · Food inflation ~16% — supply still constrained
- · AfCFTA opening regional markets
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