The six numbers every Nigerian executive should watch.
Triangulated from CBN, NBS and primary market sources. Refreshed weekly with editorial context — never just numbers.
Headline inflation eased 40bps month-on-month as food disinflation outpaced core stickiness.
The naira weakened 1.2% week-on-week at NAFEM as portfolio flows thinned ahead of the MPC.
MPC held the policy rate at 27.50% with a unanimous vote; forward guidance leans dovish into Q4.
Q1 GDP surprised at 3.40%, lifted by services (ICT, finance) and a modest oil rebound.
Gross reserves rose to $40.1B on diaspora and Eurobond inflows, covering ~8 months of imports.
Brent slipped to $74.20/bbl on softer China demand signals and steady OPEC+ supply discipline.
From the editorial desk — this week.
- fxmedium impact
Naira/USD Trajectory Watch
Naira/USD Trajectory Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: CBN NFEM.
11 Jun 2026· Source: CBN NFEM₦1,360stable vs prior month - brenthigh impact
Brent Crude & Strait of Hormuz Watch
Brent Crude & Strait of Hormuz Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: EIA / Bloomberg.
11 Jun 2026· Source: EIA / Bloomberg$92/bblGulf premium persists - mprhigh impact
MPC & Interest Rate Watch
MPC & Interest Rate Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: CBN MPC.
11 Jun 2026· Source: CBN MPC26.5%first cut Feb 2026; held May - inflationhigh impact
Food Price & Staples Watch
Food Price & Staples Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: NBS.
11 Jun 2026· Source: NBS16.06%third consecutive monthly rise - reservesmedium impact
FX Reserves & Import Cover Watch
FX Reserves & Import Cover Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: CBN.
11 Jun 2026· Source: CBN$49.5bn~7–9 months import cover - inflationhigh impact
Inflation Print Watch
Inflation Print Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: NBS CPI.
11 Jun 2026· Source: NBS CPI15.69%April 2026, paused easing - capital marketsmedium impact
Eurobond Yield & Sovereign Spread Watch
Eurobond Yield & Sovereign Spread Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: Bloomberg.
11 Jun 2026· Source: Bloomberg~9.4%tightening as risk re-rates - mprmedium impact
T-Bill & OMO Rate Watch
T-Bill & OMO Rate Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: CBN auctions.
11 Jun 2026· Source: CBN auctions~19–22%tracking system liquidity - fxmedium impact
Diaspora Remittance Flow Watch
Diaspora Remittance Flow Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: CBN balance of payments.
11 Jun 2026· Source: CBN balance of payments~$20bn/yrincreasingly formalised - brenthigh impact
PMS & Diesel Pricing Watch
PMS & Diesel Pricing Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: PPPRA / NMDPRA.
11 Jun 2026· Source: PPPRA / NMDPRA₦910/litrerose with Gulf shock - regulatorymedium impact
Electricity Tariff & Power Supply Watch
Electricity Tariff & Power Supply Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: NERC.
11 Jun 2026· Source: NERCBand A repricingindustry cost base reset - capital marketshigh impact
Foreign Portfolio Inflow Watch
Foreign Portfolio Inflow Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: CBN BoP.
11 Jun 2026· Source: CBN BoP$8.04bn (2025)supported by high yields - capital marketsmedium impact
FDI Pipeline Watch
FDI Pipeline Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: CBN BoP.
11 Jun 2026· Source: CBN BoP$4.01bn (2025)gap between pledges and deployment - regulatoryhigh impact
Federal Debt Service Watch
Federal Debt Service Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: DMO.
11 Jun 2026· Source: DMO~50% of revenuebinding fiscal constraint - regulatorymedium impact
FAAC Allocation Watch
FAAC Allocation Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: FAAC.
11 Jun 2026· Source: FAACRecord monthly distributionssupported by oil + tax - capital marketshigh impact
NGX Equity Market Watch
NGX Equity Market Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: NGX.
11 Jun 2026· Source: NGXASI +30% YTDmarket cap ~₦155tn - inflationmedium impact
Cement & Construction Input Watch
Cement & Construction Input Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: Industry data.
11 Jun 2026· Source: Industry dataAbove-headline cost growthtracking building-cost index - inflationmedium impact
Minimum Wage & Labour Cost Watch
Minimum Wage & Labour Cost Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: FMLE.
11 Jun 2026· Source: FMLE₦70,000 federal floorwage-price pass-through risk - fxmedium impact
Global Rates & US Fed Watch
Global Rates & US Fed Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: FRB.
11 Jun 2026· Source: FRBFed funds 4.25–4.50%shapes Nigeria's FX window - regulatorylow impact
AfCFTA Implementation Watch
AfCFTA Implementation Watch. Live indicator tracked by the Outliers Economic Intelligence Centre as of 2026-06-11. Source: AfCFTA Secretariat.
11 Jun 2026· Source: AfCFTA SecretariatTariff phase-in continuingreal export wins emerging - inflationmedium impact
Headline inflation eases to 32.15%
Food disinflation outpaced core stickiness as North-West harvest logistics improved.
08 Jun 2026· Source: National Bureau of Statistics32.15%−40bps m/m - fxhigh impact
Naira weakens 1.2% w/w at NAFEM
Portfolio flows thinned ahead of the MPC sitting; reserves remain supportive.
08 Jun 2026· Source: NAFEM₦1,612/$+1.2% w/w - mprhigh impact
MPC holds MPR at 27.50%
Unanimous vote; communiqué leans dovish but flags inflation persistence as a precondition for easing.
08 Jun 2026· Source: Central Bank of Nigeria27.50%MPC hold - regulatoryhigh impact
SEC tightens disclosure timelines for listed issuers
New 5-day disclosure window for material events takes effect 01 July 2026.
08 Jun 2026· Source: Securities & Exchange Commission - capital marketmedium impact
NGX ASI gains 1.8% on banking rotation
Tier-1 banks led the tape as recapitalisation timelines firmed up; market cap crosses ₦60T.
08 Jun 2026· Source: Nigerian Exchange105,420+1.8% w/w - inflationmedium impact
Inflation expectations survey softens for third month
CBN inflation-expectations survey shows households and businesses now expect 23.8% inflation by end-2026, down from 26.1% in the May round.
08 Jun 2026· Source: CBN23.8%-2.3pp m/m - fxhigh impact
CBN steps back from daily NAFEM intervention
CBN intervention sales fell to ~20m last week from 10m prior, signalling a shift to more flexible price discovery within the implicit band.
08 Jun 2026· Source: FMDQN1,612/$+1.2% w/w - mprmedium impact
Open-market T-bill stop rates ease another 40bps
Latest NTB auction cleared at 21.40% / 21.95% / 22.85% across the 91/182/364 tenors, ~40bps tighter than the prior auction.
08 Jun 2026· Source: CBN/DMO22.85%-40bps w/w - regulatoryhigh impact
FIRS issues guidance on 2026 Tax Reform Act transitional rules
FIRS circular published 7 June clarifies transitional treatment for VAT and CIT items straddling the 1 July 2026 effective date.
08 Jun 2026· Source: FIRS - capital-marketmedium impact
Foreign portfolio participation jumps to 18.4% of NGX value traded
Foreign participation at NGX rose to 18.4% of weekly value traded from 11.6% the prior week, concentrated in Tier-1 banking names.
08 Jun 2026· Source: NGX18.4%+6.8pp w/w
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