Nigeria Inflation Outlook: Disinflation gathers pace as base effects unwind

Headline inflation eased to 32.15% in May 2026 from 33.20% in April. Food inflation remains sticky but core measures show clear deceleration as 2025 base effects work through the index.

Headline CPI printed 32.15% y/y in May 2026, the third consecutive monthly decline. Core inflation eased to 26.40% (April: 27.10%), reflecting moderating import-cost pass-through after six weeks of relative naira stability. Food inflation, however, held above 38% on persistent farm-gate cost pressures in the Middle Belt.

The disinflation path remains consistent with the CBN's 21% end-2026 target, but only if FX volatility stays contained and PMS pricing does not re-spike. We see one more 25-50bp cumulative MPR cut possible in Q4 2026 if the trajectory holds.

Source: NBS / CBN