Framework

Emerging Risk Framework™

Detect, assess and prepare for risks that are new, fast-moving or unprecedented.

Overview

Emerging risks are novel, fast-evolving or beyond historical experience. This framework detects, assesses and prepares for them through horizon scanning and a managed watchlist.

Business problem

Organisations are repeatedly surprised by risks they could have anticipated because no structured horizon-scanning or watchlist process exists.

Purpose

Detect, assess and prepare for risks that are new, fast-moving or unprecedented.

Who it's for
  • Boards
  • CROs
  • Strategy leaders
  • Executives
Components
  • Horizon scanning
  • Signal & trend analysis
  • Emerging-risk scenarios
  • Watchlist & triggers
  • Preparedness options
  • Board foresight dialogue
Governance Structure
  • The CRO curates the watchlist; executives review; the board engages on horizon and foresight.
Maturity Levels (shared spine)
L1

Fragile

Maturity level 1 of the shared Outliers risk spine — Fragile.

L2

Functional

Maturity level 2 of the shared Outliers risk spine — Functional.

L3

Disciplined

Maturity level 3 of the shared Outliers risk spine — Disciplined.

L4

Strategic

Maturity level 4 of the shared Outliers risk spine — Strategic.

L5

Resilient

Maturity level 5 of the shared Outliers risk spine — Resilient.

Roadmap
Step 01
  • Establish horizon-scanning sources
Step 02
  • Interpret signals and trends
Step 03
  • Build emerging-risk scenarios
Step 04
  • Maintain a watchlist with triggers
Step 05
  • Develop preparedness options
Deliverables
  • Emerging-risk watchlist
  • Horizon-scan reports
  • Scenario foresight pack
Policies & documents
  • Emerging risk policy
  • Horizon-scanning standard
  • Emerging-risk watchlist
Metrics & KRIs
  • Watchlist size & velocity
  • Signal strength per risk
  • % emerging risks with a response option
Board oversight questions
  • What is on our emerging-risk watchlist?
  • Which emerging risks are accelerating?
  • Are we prepared for the most plausible ones?
  • How do we scan the horizon systematically?

Across the ecosystem

Knowledge graph · 2 relations

operationalised by
ResourceEmerging Risk WatchlistResourceHorizon Scanning Guide